In my opinion, the answer to your question is a resounding NO! I could write a lengthy explanation for my thinking, but I won’t go there.

One of the most obvious factors this won’t happen is because of the screen size differences. There are some applications that naturally feel better on a bigger screen than on a mobile phone and the reverse is also true.

The question I’d like to ask in response is: “Will the app-store business model be sustainable in the longer term?”, or will free web2.0 models we have today eventually run the mobile-app merchants over?

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@Figo Mago - I think that one needs to look at who is driving the different models on the 2 platforms to decide if the models will be sustainable or not. Mobile app stores are managed by the manufacturers themselves. A clear indication that hardware revenue is declining and a new channel is required. With the handset manufacturer now owning the end to end experience, one would assume that they maintain ownership of this model as long as possible.

Web 2.0 projects are driven by just about everybody else but hardware manufacturers. There is no invested interest by them to close platforms and frankly, technology and software have come too far to go to a purely paid model. However, we can not ignore the impending need to create revenue models by these web 2.0 projects. VC funding will only carry you so far, before long term sustainability becomes a need!

Thanks for the comment!

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Great blog found this via twitter im just adding to my blog now.

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Slightly off topic, but many fail to publish the new touch oriented Windows Mobile 6.5 that is geared to launch soon with Microsoft’s own Marketplace for applications.

This of course only being a teaser for the REAL deal when Microsoft launches its much anticipated Windows Mobile 7.

And yes, it is not irony, nor coincidence, that Microsoft’s latest desktop operating system is also called Windows 7.

@Figo Mago: It seems that you suggest that this mobile application business is a passing fad and you highlight screen size as primary reason. If this is true, you are in great company as Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer as recently as June 2nd implied that the mobile phone will play second fiddle to the PC for years (5 to be exact) to come. Unfortunately, the mobile analyst and expert, Tomi Ahonen, give hundreds of statistical reasons why this is bollocks: http://bit.ly/13aJu4

Mobile is the future my friend. Not necessarily the mobile phone as we know it today, but the more mobile we as people can get, the more mobile we will aim to become. Look at this video for an eye opener: http://bit.ly/11qBXt

So to answer your question, the mobile application business will keep on refining itself. More and more people will become accustomed to, and reliant on, mobile applications, simply *because* more and more people will use their mobile phones to access their plethora of online networks. Networks Which will keep increasing as we’ve not even seen the tip of the digital iceberg.

This notion of freebies on the web will hopefully soon be killed off completely too. People have paid for value added products and services for millenia and I find it odd that we, yes I included, suddenly feel we have the right to demand things for free.

It’s simple: If something adds value, it is worth paying for.

Throw in QR codes, the ability to list and purchase items with the swipe of your mobile phone’s camera, the transfer of money with mobile’s micropayment facilities bound to ease the burden of the (now almost useless) effort of paying credit cards, and you can expect this “passing fad” to reach even greater proportions.

The digital world is changing and you’d very soon be able to have it all…int the palm of your hand.

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[…] recently found this article on TechLeader discussing the application development scene for mobile handsets and how this will impact the […]

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I think you might be looking at this from the wrong angle. It’s true the mobile world and the desktop world are rapidly converging and as handset capability improves the gap between what the average user can do on a mobile platform vs. what they can do on a full pc is closing at an alarming rate.

However I’m not convinced that this forces handset and mobile network providers into looking at alternative revenue models - if anything as wireless capabilities and cheap connectivity become more ubiquitous I’m more concerned about the sustainability of the revenue model of the traditional Internet Service Provider.

Web 2.0, mashed up mobile/browser applications and the idea of having access to my favourite toolset and stored data regardless of the platform and location I’m connecting from are the value-add carrot dangling in front of this speeding donkey called convergence. Anyone who tries to close the stable door on this freedom of open-ended use and inventiveness now will simply be condemning themselves to a lonely death in a proprietary stable (ok the analogy gets a little thin there)

Some software and services will always be free, some will always be paid for and I believe the questions of value for money, reliability and performance will always be the primary drivers that customers will use in making decisions about which ones they choose.

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