According to Jan Chipchase, principle researcher for Nokia, there will be three billion people connected on cellphones by the end of 2007. That is a fair chunk out of the approximately 6,3-billion people inhabiting the Earth. He also anticipates that within another two years, a further billion people will be connected.

Wow. That puts a new spin on the number of Facebook members, said to have been 42-million in October this year, and relegates them to total insignificance. Yet the fight between the big boys such as Google, Yahoo! and Microsoft for a stake in social networking communities such as Facebook is vicious, and large amounts of money are on the table. Microsoft paid $240-million for a 1,6% stake in Facebook, just to remind oneself of the insane numbers being thrown around.

So who is fighting over access to these three billion connected people? This is surely a similar community? Cellphone users want to be connected. So do Facebook users. Cellphone users can SMS any other phone user, provided they have the number. Facebook users can poke or send messages to other members, provided they know that person’s Facebook ID. There are many other similarities between these two “communities”. Simplistic analysis? Perhaps.

I have been disappointed at the slow rate of development of the cellphone — both what the gadget can do and what marketers are doing with it. By now I had anticipated marketers talking to the audiences using full-on Flash animations, interactive viral campaigns or video ads instead of the odd SMS.

Companies would have designed products exclusively for cellphones. As an example, phones have both a speaker and a microphone. Where are the mobile language courses for quick, on-the-hoof lessons — without the need for internet access? For the health conscious, or those with illnesses that need monitoring, what about a diagnostic monitoring facility that automatically dials to emergency services if there is a problem?

Sure some great software features are available. One can play animated games, watch good-quality video, take photographs and upload automatically to Flickr, for instance. One can use pre-paid air time as a gift, or even as a form of legal tender. Some phones use the internet for free phone calls.

What about the handset itself? I would love a phone the size of a button that could be pinned on to a lapel and, because it comes with a solar-powered battery, I don’t ever need to worry about running out of juice. No space for a keypad then? Where is the long-awaited and -hyped voice-activation software? And of course it plugs into a small monitor when I want to watch movies.

When I walk out of my house, I carry keys, wallet and phone, at least. According to Jan Chipchase, this is what most people do. One less item to carry in my hand or bag would be great. So the phone could replace the keys, as doors and phones would run on barcode systems with the use of Bluetooth. And possibly the phone could replace the credit card? Pay via the phone by dialling up automatically to your bank.

Of course there is innovation. And there are probably many features and products available that I just don’t know about. It just seems that the technology is moving at a slower pace than I anticipated 10 years ago when I thought that mobile telecommunication would be the next huge thing.

And of course it is the next huge thing in terms of users. Who would have thought 10 years ago that the uptake would be so quick, and quicker in the developing world where state-owned fixed-line operators are not delivering a connecting tool to communication starved people?

Whatever the rate of progress, great and exciting things will surely be happening in the cellphone landscape. It’s just a matter of time. Do watch this short video of a TED talk by Jan Chipchase on cellphones, what the people are doing with them and where they could be headed. Makes for interesting watching.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, November 3rd, 2007 at 12:34 am and is filed under Mobile, Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.